Bitcoin hits a critical position and XBIT spot ETF from the top ten cryptocurrency exchanges have a record influx

Bitcoin continued to be strong last week (April 20-26), with the price climbing 11.75% to $94,061, setting a two-month high. XBIT analysis pointed out that although the spot Bitcoin ETF had a record weekly net inflow of $3.1 billion, the perpetual futures market showed a sharp bearish signal, coupled with the battle for the key resistance level of $96,000, the market’s disagreement on whether Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 mark has intensified.

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The Trump administration’s signal of tariff concessions and the 7.1% weekly increase in the S&P 500 index have pushed Bitcoin and risk assets to strengthen simultaneously. The spot Bitcoin ETF has a weekly inflow of $3.1 billion, a record high, indicating that institutional and retail funds are accelerating. However, the abnormal financing rate of perpetual futures contracts exposes the market’s fragility.

On April 26, the financing rate of perpetual contracts plummeted to -0.15%, a rare level in the bull market. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts pointed out that negative interest rates mean that retail investors are paying high fees to maintain short positions, and more than $450 million of short positions were forcibly liquidated on the same day. This phenomenon is closely related to the emergence of selling pressure after the price broke through $94,000, suggesting that leveraged funds are sensitive to high levels.

The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has plummeted from 60% in March to 29%, indicating that its “tech stock alternative” attribute has faded. Although gold failed to hit $3,500, Bitcoin has remained above $90,000 for more than two weeks, gradually getting rid of the controversy of “digital gold”. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysis believes that the decline in correlation reflects that Bitcoin is evolving into an independent asset class, but macroeconomic fluctuations may still affect the market through sentiment transmission.

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The bearish sentiment of perpetual contracts dominated by retail investors is in sharp contrast to the optimistic signals released by institutions through monthly futures. On April 26, the premium (basis) of two-month Bitcoin futures rose to 6.5%, a seven-week high, in the neutral range of 5%-10%, indicating that institutions are positioning for potential gains. This divergence confirms the structural contradiction in the market – professional traders take the opportunity to buy on dips, while retail leveraged funds face short-term correction pressure.

Currently, Bitcoin is facing a dual game of technical and capital aspects. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts emphasized: “The key battle on the technical side: $96,000 has become the watershed between long and short positions. If it breaks through $96,000 (the average cost of short-term holders), it may trigger stop-loss buying and push the price to $100,000; on the contrary, if it falls below the $90,000 support, the $88,000-94,000 range may become a phased consolidation zone.” Investors choose XBIT (dex Exchange) to continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin. Its smart contracts can be flexibly upgraded to support complex financial products such as leveraged trading and derivatives. In addition, the automated market maker (AMM) model reduces the possibility of artificial price manipulation. It realizes user asset sovereignty, transaction transparency and anti-censorship, which is especially suitable for groups that value privacy, technology trust and global participation.

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There are only about 40 days left before the Bitcoin block reward is halved. Historical patterns show that the market tends to accumulate funds 3-6 months before the halving. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysis points out that if Bitcoin stabilizes at $96,000, it may start a sprint to $100,000; but the short liquidation tide and derivative indicators warn of short-term volatility risks. With the differentiation of institutional funds and retail leverage strategies, the market is entering a critical turning point, and investors need to be wary of profit taking and the resonance effect of macro variables.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this press release is not a solicitation for investment, nor is it intended as investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. It is strongly recommended you practice due diligence, including consultation with a professional financial advisor, before investing in or trading cryptocurrency and securities.